Mobile access to the Internet

With an explosion in cellphone subscribers in Africa and a much slower growth in PC based Internet access, it does not surprise that mobile phones will increasingly play the role of linking an information hunger continent to the web.


South Africa is leading the way according to this article on bizcommunity.

Electricity crises and the CDM

South Africa's power crises might stimulate CDM in South Africa, according to a piece on Point Carbon. This is a possibility, but do not count on the CDM to come to the immediate rescue.

According to South Africa's Designated National Authority latest project portfolio (dated 10 Dec 2007), there were 63 CDM projects submitted of which 10 have been approved at the CDM executive board so far. Almost half (46%) of the projects are in energy efficiency (EE), renewable energy (RE) and fuel switching. Of the approved project design documents (PDDs) energy efficiency, renewable energy and fuel switching projects are only responsible for 31% of the potential annual emission reductions. When projects approved and in those in the pipeline are added 77% of all potential emissions reductions are in fuel switching, with a further 9% in RE and EE.

Based on existing developments therefore, investments in especially fuel switching projects may stimulate CDM, if these are approved by the CDM Executive board. These large fuel switching projects are still in the Project Idea Note (PIN) phase and it will take time before developed into a PDD and approved by the CDM Executive Board.

The CDM infrastructure is also geared towards other regions. According to the UNFCCC, Africa still accounts for only 2.64% of all CDM projects worldwide. Measured on the amount of certified emissions credits issued, China dominates, followed by India and South Korea.

All you know and want to know about Kenya

Do you want to know what is going on in Kenya? Are you experiencing what is happening in Kenya?

If thsi is the case, go to Ushahidi. Ushahidi means witness. It has documented change in Kenya for a few weeks now and discussed on other blogs such as mikestopforth and boingboing.

This is a great site about a deep crisis.

Inequality and race

That South Africa counts among the most inequal societies in the world is well-known. To single out race 14 years after democracy as a factor that continues to define inequality is more contentious (see this article in polity.org.za). It may have an impact, but there are certainly much larger forces at work that make the rich richer and the poor poorer.


Rising inequality is a worldwide phenomena.
Inequality is also rising in affluent countries such as the United States and in rapidly developing nations such as China.

For an excellent visual treatment of World development data see GapMinder. Here are some highlights on one of the presentations on World Income Distribution:

• The richest 20% have 74% of income


• The poorest 20% have 2% of income


• In 2000, 1.2 billion people or 19% of world population lived on less then $1 per day


• In 1970, 1.4 billion or 38% of world population lived on less then $1 per day.


• In Africa, in 2000, 66% lived on less the $1 per day. This compares to 11% in 1970.

Inequality is persistent and entrenched in the way the world works at this stage. This does not exclude a focus on specific local issues, but does place it in larger context.

The blame for load shedding

An excellent piece from polity.org.za. The article beautifully covers why we are where we are.

Taken a few steps further, it is the same old story: policy fails, markets do not have the space to respond to correct signals on resource scarcity, prices do not have the time to adjust gradually, this is followed by an abrupt shock to supply, expensive knee-jerk reactions follow, some heads roll (sometimes), and new sources of supply are bulldozed through any regulatory system there may be to mitigate the impacts. Next step: blame the EIA for delaying the roll-out of new power stations (sorry that has already happened). Next step: adjust environmental policies - preserving the environment is bad for growth. Stop environmental issues while we are back to basics. Just repeat the electricity-development link a few times. Show pictures of people reading at candle light.

Who can blame them?

Coal fired utilities delayed in US

53 coal-fired plants were canceled or delayed in 2007, according to Global Energy Decisions, a private consulting firm that tracks power plants for the Department of Energy, this according to an article by ENN.

Uncertainties relate to the cost of climate change, construction costs and transportation problems.

Would be very interesting to see what will start taking the blame if electricity prices start to rise substantially or load-shedding starts happening in the US.

Icelands rags to riches inspiration for Africa

A positive contribution from VoxEU on Africa's development prospects.

SA Inventions

South Africa keeps inventing. From Muti.

Cities, Complexity and Natural Resource Management

I am in Paris, attending a colloquium on Sustainable Urban Planning, hosted by the CNRS (Centre de la Recherche Scientifique). Our contribution, from Prof Mark Swilling and myself, focused on the use of mediated systems dynamics modeling to better understand the interrelationships and dynamics of natural resources, service delivery, municipal finances and ultimately key interventions with Cape Town’s development path. The argument is as follows: when systems become more complex, uncertainty becomes more acute and any attempt at top down planning and control more and more frustrating. When cities are viewed as complex systems, (and here) it does not matter so much what sustainable development means, but it does matter more and more what difference local interventions can make, while keeping an eye on the results of an emerging city system. This presupposes that individuals or well-organised local groups are empowered to anticipate and adapt to changing situations, that pragmatic choices must be possible, and that actors are free to adapt to a rapidly changing city. Such empowered individuals and groups can play an active role in changing the City towards a more sustainable use of natural resources as demonstrated by several experimental projects.

The City of Cape Town is increasingly faced with ecological thresholds and technological abilities to keep circumventing these thresholds. At the same time a policy of expanding free services to everyone are placing enormous strain on the municipal finances of the city and has led to cross-subsidies between services and increasing backlogs on capital infrastructure and maintenance of existing service infrastructure. The trouble is that due to a history marked by apartheid and associated spatial disconnect, existing services were mainly concentrated in relatively affluent areas. Things have changed a lot though in the last 10 years after democracy, but the reality of a crisis in the continued sustainable provision of services has started to bite. It is time to use the opportunity in the crisis.

Then we hit the other side of the coin. After all, we are attending a colloquium on urban planning. The word itself suggests that cities can be moulded and shaped according to a preconceived idea/science/approach of how cities should look like. The argument goes like this: We have this and that problem. What can be done about it? What can we do about it? (of course…given all our expertise on the situation). Crises situations are used to motivate for tighter control and prescriptive top-down planning. This argument is then used to call for a stronger state and top down planning functions, for property to be detached from private ownership (so that this can be reconverted to some kind of public good), for less participation (because experts know and do not need to be informed by local choice), and for a focus on power relationships rather then millions and millions of economic transactions based on individual choice.

In a country like South Africa one can understand this reaction. Economic growth does not deliver jobs fast enough. Inequality is rising. Poverty remains persistent. Environmental degradation is continuing. Biodiversity hotspots are threatened. CO2 emissions are notoriously high. We need strong intervention to steer the economy, to plan cities…

The kind of intervention is what matters. We need intervention that steers towards better decisions. All Cape Towns’ 3.2 million residents should be empowered to help the City achieve a more sustainable future in an ever changing and increasingly connected world.

A singular focus on top-down planning will not prepare us well for an increasingly globalised and connected world. Key decisions on Cape Town’s future are taken in The White House, Teheran, and in the meeting rooms of European agricultural negotiators.

Where does that leave issues of city leadership and good governance under such emerging uncertainties? Leadership means to empower people to respond to their immediate situation. It is first of all a modest acknowledgment that the world is complex and many issues are just uncontrollable. City dwellers should be partners rather then subjects. This can be achieved through building local resilience; the ability to adapt. The old Greek philosophical idea that cities are the beacon of stability in a threatening world is dead. Cities are getting connected, they participate in world economies, they compete for investments, while they are threatened by climate change, pollution and a lack of affordable natural resources. The City doors cannot be closed anymore, even if we wanted to. City managers cannot comprehend or second guess what will happen in future, but they can build scenarios, simulate possible futures and be adaptable when needed.

This does not relieve them of their responsibility to govern though. They have to be smart by not creating structures that will break in the face of change, by providing safety nets for excluded third parties (a harsh reality of this world) and by providing inspiring leadership that embraces novelty in a changing world. With a changing world the key words are moving from ‘high-level’, ‘prediction’, ‘technocratic planning’, ‘knowability’ and ‘control’ to ‘local level’, ‘adaptation’, ‘participative planning’, ‘unknowns’ and ‘empowerment’.

Wisdom is to find an appropriate balance within the context of each and every situation. It is for sure that the Sustainable Urban Planning community is actively debating the strength and weaknesses of their approaches in a changing world.

New casualities of the electricity crises

South Africa's electricity supply crises starts affecting its electricity dependent neighbours. Does not really bode well for plans on regional integration.


Read story in thetimes.

Reducing GHG at a net benefit?

Intially referred to on Common Tragedies blog; according to a study done by McKinsey 'Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much and at What Cost?' there are several opportunities in the US to reduce greenhouse gases at a negative cost.

Here is the abatement cost curve:

Interesting that many options are available at a negative cost.

The study admits that it did not account for consumer lifestyle changes, transaction costs and high discount rates. Key issues.

Behaviour should be taken seriously. I think that is something social scientists have argued for a few decades.

WANTED: US leadership on climate change

At a round table on climate change in Kirstenbosch, Cape Town, Minister van Schalkwyk, South African minister of Department Environmental Affairs and Tourism, called for the US to move beyond a mere commitment to join negotiations to one of providing leadership.

Mail and Guardian online reports.

Cellphone revolution in Africa

Cellphones have very rapidly become the mode of connectivity in Africa.
The amount of impressions rivals that of Western Europe.

Read the full story on bizcommunity.

Local Electricity Development

Generate your own electricity and sell to Eskom. Less grid, more independence.
Will it come with more reliability? At what price?

Read this contribution from Muti.

Coal reserves less then thought

It is commonly argued that coal reserves are sufficient for another 200-250 years.

A new study argues that, like oil, coal production will peak around 2025. This has important implications for planning of a renewable energy society, and of course, important implications for coal producers investing in long-term projects.

Read the full story on Scitizen.

Cellphones save $300/hectare in irrigation costs

Connectivity saves money for sugar cane small-scale irrigation farmers in South Africa. Cellphones keep farmers up to date on when to irrigate their crops.



Initially posted on the African Agriculture blog.

Does rising inequality lead to higher demand for redistribution?

No, well at least not in the UK. This is the finding of a new study on inequality and redistribution. For a full report see this piece on VoxEU.


This is contra the expectation of the standard median-voter theory that rising inequality should produce more redistribution.


This article touches on the all-important question on how belief systems change over time. The study concludes: One way to summarise this conclusion is that what people believe is as important as the objective economic circumstances in explaining people’s attitudes to political issues like redistribution. And these beliefs can change fast. Such a conclusion is perhaps only a potential surprise to economists as it simply says that politics is a battle for ‘hearts and minds’.


The study does identify the question where those beliefs come from for further research.


Just a thought. In an increasingly postmodern and interconnected world belief systems tend to become more individualistic, flexible and forever changing. Established traditional relationships continue to break down in a world where beliefs are constantly challenged and changed through the free flow of information.


Another thought. In a discussion on the median voter model in the Encyclopedia of Public Choice the following was concluded:
...in general, the median voter model appears to be quite robust as a model of public policy formation in areas where the median voter can credibly be thought to understand and care about public policy.

Maybe voters (in the UK) just do not understand or care about redistribution anymore.

Cellphones improve lives in Senegal

Another story on how cellphones change lives in Africa, from an article on the Popular Science blog.

Google Earth and Environmental Communication

Popular Science has just released an overlay on Google Earth and their special issue on the Future of the Environment. It covers topics such as irrigation water withdrawal, glacial retreat, coral reef damages etc.



Well worth a visit.

Collective wisdom

Since James Surowiecki published his book The Wisdom of Crowds activities and sites focussed on the idea of collective wisdom have mushroomed.


Here a few links on pratical sites on collective wisdom:


http://www.ziitrend.com/
http://www.predictify.com/index.aspx


There are times when crowds can get it all wrong; key criteria that separate wise crowds from irrational ones are:

• Diversity of opinion. Each person should have private information even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.



• Independence. People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.



• Decentralization. People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.



• Aggregation. Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.

Certainly an idea to let Africans speak on their own development needs. With mobile phones and the Internet, diversity, independence and decentralised inputs should not be so much of a (conceptual) problem.


It seems as if the trick will be to find a reasonable way of aggregation.