Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Crowd wisdom on who will win the FIFA World Cup 2010

What is the track record of crowds predicting the outcome of major events like the FIFA World Cup?

This is what Lucker et al wrote in their article On the Forecast Accuracy of Sports Prediction Markets:

In this paper, we present the results of an empirical study that compares the forecast accuracy of a prediction market for the FIFA World Cup 2006 to predictions derived from the FIFA world ranking and to a random predictor. We find that prediction markets for the FIFA World Cup outperform predictions based on the FIFA world ranking as well as the random predictor in terms of forecast accuracy.

So, what are some sports prediction markets saying? Inkling Public Prediction Market: Brazil, closely followed by Argentina.

And, yes some experts are completely off the mark.

I still think Holland can do it. Lucker also warned against that.

FIFA, soccer or country?

The World Cup is in full swing. Who gets the attention - FIFA, soccer itself or the country?

Based on an Internet search volume index, Google Trends sheds some light:

south africa

Although attention to FIFA is generally lower than the game of soccer itself, it is much higher relative to game and country during both the World Cups of 2006 and 2010.