Five systemic challenges

In a recent panel discussion at the South African chapter of the World Future Society we discussed the top five systemic challenges facing South Africa. From the perspective of environmental sustainability here is my five:

First, the uneasy relationship between coal and carbon. Much of the electricity in major developing countries such as China and also South Africa is expected to come from coal. The energy returned on energy invested ratios for coal are still higher than other energy feedstocks. The IEA expects that coal will continue to play a major role in world energy supply for many decades to come. South Africa’s own energy plans include coal as the primary source for electricity generation in the forseeable future. Around a third of total carbon emissions in the world is from coal. This number is higher in South Africa. Coal provides three-quarters of energy supplied in SA. How and when the costs of carbon constraints will seep through into South Africa’s energy system, and what the technological and behavioural responses will be is a key trend to watch and a key challenge to manage.

Second is the nexus between changing climates, the availability of water and the need for more productive food systems. South Africa, apart from some Middle Eastern countries, have one of the lowest amounts of renewable freshwater available to its people. This amount has also been drastically reduced in the last few decades. Food security in Southern Africa is a major problem, with well over 100 million people malnourished in the region. The pressure for an African revolution in food production is large, but this have to be managed within the context of high vulnerability to climatic change and increased competition for water resources. Desalination is fastly becoming an option for coastal towns and cities.

Third is the impact of Sino-African relationships on Africa’s, as well as South Africa’s, development paths. Africa is seen as a preferred supplier of commodities, most notably oil, but also cotton, diamonds, logs and other base metals. The ecological costs of China’s growth have been well documented as well as China’s drive towards investment in cleaner technology in recent years. Africa’s long history of natural resource exploitation and the mixed signals from China on environmental management needs to be further unpacked as it may have important consequences for the sustainability of South Africa’s development path.

Fourth, South Africa’s water system needs urgent attention. Water services in only 11% of municipalities in the country are fully functional. Almost half are either at high risk or critical. A report on the state of about half of our sewage treatment works further revealed that only around 7% qualified for so-called Green Drop Status, which is a close measure of international accepted norms. The problem of decanting acid mine drainage looms, where the high amounts of salts and heavy metals associated with it will threaten downstream irrigation and other water users.

Fifth, one of the downside’s of South Africa’s recent economic boom was a massive pile of waste. Landfills are under pressure, and alternative waste management options are actively seeked. The costs of waste management are likely to rise while the country is managing the transition to waste avoidance, reduction and recycling.

Food miles or fair miles

I wish to thank Martin for the opportunity to be guest blogger here again, following a few entries from me in the past (mostly Africa and sustainable tourism related). I wish to this time revisit the slightly related topic of food miles and share a recent report of Oxfam and IIED called "Fair miles - recharting the food miles debate" that focuses on African fruit and vegetable exports to the UK.

As the world continues to grapple with climate change, the “buying local” and “food miles” concepts are intuitively appealing, but especially in colder climates (where it is most popular) it is flawed and simplistic based on a false assumption that transport is the only or major cause of greenhouse gas emissions. This ignores the complexity of the food chain from the seed to the plate. Among the more obvious examples is the energy-intensive industrial-scale cultivation in greenhouses having far more environmental impacts than the African low carbon small-scale producer (with a lot of help from the sun).

Some interesting extracts from the report:

"A tomato grown in Essex in the UK is not necessarily more environmentally friendly... if that Essex tomato needed energy-intense greenhouse cultivation to survive. There are, too, other environmental impacts, such as fertiliser use and soil degradation" (p.9)

"Tara Garnett of the Food Climate Research Network (FCRN) — a UK initiative studying greenhouse gas emissions from the food system — led a recent lifecycle analysis of these emissions in the UK. It suggests that transport accounts for about 10 percent of the food system’s emissions." (p.16)

In contrast:

"Agriculture is a top contributor... according to DEFRA, for 36 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions associated with food consumption in the UK" (p.18).

Even "shopping, storage and preparation" (p.27) accounts for more than transport.

"The vast majority of UK farms derive inputs from outside the UK, and consequently are responsible for greenhouse gas emissions that occur outside their locality as well as outside the UK. For many foods, this poses serious questions about their ‘local’ credibility" (p.14)

"To begin to fully understand the social and environmental effects of our food choices, we need to take a look at the entire food supply chain — from farm to manufacturer, to wholesaler or distributor, to retailer, to individual — and the energy use, emissions, and livelihood opportunities associated with each step of that convoluted journey" (p 13)

To really drive home the message that we need to be more holistic than counting the “food miles”, the livelihood dimension is added as final element in the last quote above. The report concludes:

"Kenyans contribute very little to the global emissions burden. And what is more, the entire airfreight trade in fruits and vegetables between the UK and Kenya adds a mere 0.1 per cent to the UK’s total emissions. Given the industrialised world’s historical responsibility for emissions, and its current high per capita emissions, is reducing its carbon footprint from 10.60 to 10.59 tonnes really worth imperilling 1 to 1.5 million livelihoods?" (p.33)

This trade-off is the kind of question that environmental economists need to explore further. Are we in a real inevitable trade-off situation, or is there even a way of minimizing carbon emmisions from African agriculture for export without affecting livelihoods?

Some related articles on this topic from Times online, Prospect magazine and a UK government report from DEFRA and DFID. (Guest blog contribution by Gerhard Buttner: Development and Ecotourism Consultant - South Africa, Mexico and the UK)

Hunger and climate change in SADC - summarised

After a few months of data analyses and literature review, a cautious conclusion on hunger in SADC:

In summary, the main threat to undernourishment in SADC is a lack of food consumption. This is mainly influenced by a lack of own production, erratic local prices, a weak spatial integration of food markets, and very low penetration of average income growth to poorer household economies. The additional risks of climate change and competing land use for biofuels increase the vulnerability of the system, most directly on a household level. Direct response options to support farmers and households are important, but not sufficient. Broader reforms in regional and international trade, as well as a focus on socio-economic and political factors, are needed to improve the overall food system in SADC.

Southern African Regional Climate Change Programme

Africa is expected to bear the brunt of climatic changes (see earlier blogpost The IPCC on Climate Change in Africa). Now there is a new regional Southern African programme to deal with the effects of climate change on the largely poor and malnourished populations in this often forgotten part of the world. With so much anxiety on the success of the Copenhagen talks, this rings at least as a step in the right direction.

From the RCCP website:

"It is in the interests of both the developed and the developing world—North and South—that the impact of climate change on poverty be contained. The Regional Climate Change Programme (RCCP) has been established to help the whole region adapt to climate change. Extending its reach beyond political borders, the RCCP is furthermore committed to helping level the playing field with regard to equitable access to climate funding.

Future life in Southern Africa will depend on the ability of both the environment and the population to adapt to warmer temperatures and greater unpredictability in weather patterns. This variability is already having a negative impact on progress toward the Millennium Development Goals of water, agriculture, health and energy."

Read full story and much more about the programme here.

Trade and Development Report on Africa and Environment

The UN Trade and Development Report 2009 was released. A few snippets highlights the worsening state of Africa and possible growth and development opportunities in addressing environmental concerns:

On Africa:

Falling GDP...

In Africa output growth is expected to slow down sharply in 2009, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where per capita GDP will actually fall.

Increasing food insecurity...

In 2009, food emergencies persist in 31 countries, and it is estimated that between 109 million and 126 million people, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, may have fallen below the poverty line since 2006 due to higher food prices

On the natural environment:

Climate change and development...

Increased efforts aimed at climate change mitigation can be combined with forward-looking development strategies and rapid growth in developing countries.

Market for ’environmental goods’...

At present, the global market for what is sometimes called “environmental goods” is clearly dominated by developed countries, but several developing economies already account for an increasing share of this market. For some countries, climate change mitigation offers new possibilities to exploit natural comparative advantages, particularly in the production of low-carbon energy, which so far have been of minor economic importance; for others it may offer opportunities to build new dynamic comparative advantages.

A proactive industrial policy with a special focus on using existing comparative advantages and creating new ones in the production of environmental goods is of particular relevance in the context of forward-looking development strategies, because the policy space for support measures in this area is less narrowly circumscribed by multilateral agreements than in other areas.

Adaptation!?

Adapting to the impacts of climate change needs much more attention, especially for a developing continent such as Africa, an idea that was supported in earlier posts on this blog (See: In Africa climate change = adaptation, Africa and Adaptation, Let's not forget adaptation)

This time another article From Project Syndicate:

COPENHAGEN – Striking the right balance between preventing global warming and adapting to its effects is one of the most important – and most vexing – policy questions of our age. It is also often ignored.

According to the conventional wisdom of many environmental campaigners, we should first do everything we can to mitigate global warming, and only then focus on adaptation strategies. This seems wrong – even immoral – if we could do more for people and the planet through adaptation.

Read here for full article.

Read here for the background economic analysis supporting the article.

Priorities for Environmental Expenditure

The South African government has released the Medium Term Strategic Framework

a framework to guide government's programme in the electoral period 2009-2014. This is what the report has to say on the environment:

 

The main objective of government is to encourage sustainable resource management and use by focusing on various interventions including the diversification of the energy mix in pursuance of renewable energy alternatives and promotion of energy efficiency; adopting waste reduction practices by encouraging the re-use of waste outputs as productive inputs; enforcing zero tolerance approach to illegal and unsustainable exploitation of resources; improving air and atmospheric quality for health and well being of citizens; supporting local and sustainable food production; sustainable water use and preserving quality of drinking water and enhancing biodiversity and the preservation of natural habitats.

The focus is on energy efficiency and renewables, waste, exploitation of natural resources, air quality and health, water use and quality, biodiversity and natural habitats. No specifics, such as targets, timeframes and allocations are mentioned. The report does include a list of programmes, but do not appear conclusive:

Establishing a National framework response on climate change mitigation and adaptation whilst maintaining our reputation as a global player

A common system for environmental impact management across government in developing the Environmental Impact Management Strategy that will ensure improved efficiency and effectiveness

Implementing the Water for Growth and Development strategy: strengthening institutional capacity for water management so that water scarcity is not exacerbated by ineffectual management, and finding the right mix of mechanisms to effect change in behaviour including regulatory, self-regulatory, market-based instruments and awareness and education. Projects such as the Mokolo River Augumentation Project and the Lower Sunday’s river aimed at improving water availability and irrigation especially for poor farmers and providing Previously Disadvantaged Users access to user rights will continue

Finalise a policy process on market-based instruments such as taxes, charges and incentives that can be used to promote environmental protection and biodiversity conservation

Implementation of the National Framework for Sustainable Development to ensure that the country follows a sustainable development trajectory for now and into the future

Promote innovation and diversification towards alternative production of resources

To pursue and explore further the concept of Green Jobs including scaling up labour intensive natural resources management practices that contribute to decent work and livelihood opportunities. In particular projects and industries are being pursued in the fields of marine aquaculture development, wildlife management, waste services and ecosystems rehabilitation programmes

Efforts to meet the energy efficiency target of 12% by 2015 and renewable energy target of 10 0 GWh by 2013, will be enhanced by creating an enabling environment for renewable energy, through for example implementing the renewable energy feed-in tariff and building the local renewable energy manufacturing capacity

Effectively managing and allocating the radio frequency spectrum, which is a finite and scarce national resource, prioritising the allocation of the spectrum for developmental purposes.

South Africa's declining share of electricity generation and responsibility for climate change

Based on numbers produced in the recently released BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009 we did an analysis on South Africa's relative share of electricity generation. South Africa generates around 1.3-1.4% of the world's electricity and this number has been relatively stable from 1990 up to 2008. However, when expressed as a percentage of electricity generated in the BRIC countries and in China a different picture emerges.  In 1990 South Africa produced almost 27% of the amount of electricity that China generated, but this has declined rapidly to only 8% in 2008. In comparison to the BRIC countries this declining share is less dramatic, from 7.5% in 1990 to 4.8% in 2008.

Although not a direct proxy for greenhouse gas emissions over time, these numbers provide some important insights in South Africa's relative responsibility to mitigate against the emissions of greenhouse gases when compared to other developing countries.

Climate Change: South Africa's options

The South African government is currently hosting a climate change summit. According to the designated website the purpose and objectives of the summit are as follows:

PURPOSE

The purpose of the Climate Change Summit 2009 is to:

• Provide all key climate change response stakeholders with an update on the most recent climate change research and other current South African initiatives and interventions; and
• Provide a platform for all key climate change response stakeholders to discuss and agree the framework for a National Climate Change Response Policy that includes, among others, fiscal, regulatory and legislative packages as well as sectoral implementation plans.

OBJECTIVES

By the end of the summit –

• All key climate change response stakeholders have a common understanding of the most recent climate change research and other South African climate change response initiatives and interventions;
• A detailed policy framework (comprehensive annotated table of contents) is broadly supported;
• The roles and responsibilities of sector departments in respect to the development of the sector policy components is agreed;
• All policy development timelines and milestones are agreed;
• The implications and intentions of all policy directions are understood.

On this blog this topic has also been discussed in bits and pieces. A short synthesis that may help in further debating South Africa's options:

- CDM may be an obstacle rather then a solution to climate stabilisation. Yes, it may offer some benefits and help finance reduction of greenhouse gases, but CDM has not (yet?) made a discernable impact in Africa. CDM may prove to be a stepping stone towards a more efficient multi-lateral market on carbon credits in the medium to longer term.

- Adaptation is the name of the game in Africa. Africa contributes little to overall greenhouse gases and is most vulnerable to climate change. With persistent poverty and increasing socioeconomic vulnerability, no climate change response strategy worthy its salt will ignore or only pay lip service to strengthening adaptive capacity. Let's not forget adaption.

- In South Africa we have a few very large greenhouse gas emitters. Eskom is the second highest CO2 emitting power company in the world. South Africa has a high energy and carbon intensive economy. This suggests that environmental effectiveness and efficiency gains are most likely be possible, but the risks of not doing anything need to be included in a future strategy. Increasing climate risks may start affecting planned expansions in coal-fired power stations (see also here and related story from the World Bank here). The point is that coal-fired power is an increasing risky business. These risks need to be reflected within a country development and company strategy, not only in a national climate response strategy.

- The pertinent question is at what cost greenhouse gases can be reduced. Marginal cost curves for greenhouse gas reduction (see Global cost carbon reduction, US cost curves) illustrate that some options may yield net benefits while others can be very expensive.  However, these studies did raise questions on the assumed behaviour of consumers, whether the costs of transacting have been included and the discount rate. The South African Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) also proposes a list with the costs of country specific interventions. This is useful work, but as the authors themselves suggest, need to set the basis for a more detailed scrutiny of the proposed options.

- The climate system may be forced into abrupt changes. In some circles this has been referred to as tipping points. The need to responding to extreme climatic events and disasters need to be acknowledged and response options for such climatic events included in a disaster management strategy.

- The Kyoto Protocol is fragile and pressure is mounting for a new climate policy regime.  Any national policy on climate change need to anticipate and plan for a future international climate policy regimes which may include wider cap-and-trade systems (cap-auction-and-trade), trade rules and border tariff adjustments to name a few.

Rising temperature, decreasing income?

Hotter means lower income, even within countries, but there is a theory of longer-term adaption. 

From a new NBER paper, "TEMPERATURE AND INCOME: 

RECONCILING NEW CROSS-SECTIONAL AND PANEL ESTIMATES":

This paper provides new evidence on the relationship between temperature and income. 

Using sub-national data from 12 countries in the Americas, we show that the negative cross- 

sectional relationship between temperature and income exists within countries, as well as across 

countries. We then provide a theoretical framework for reconciling the substantial, negative 

association between temperature and income in cross-section with the even stronger short-run 

effects of temperature shown in panel models. The theoretical framework suggests that half of 

the negative short-term effects of temperature are offset in the long run through adaptation. 

Steady increase in greenhouse gases

Despite Kyoto and much talk about climate change, greenhouse gases of 40 industrialised nations are on the increase (again). 

From the UN News Centre:

Greenhouse gas emissions of 40 industrialized countries rose by 2.3 per cent between 2000 and 2006, while still about 5 per cent below the 1990 level, according to United Nations figures released today, two weeks before a major review conference on the issue.

For the smaller group of industrialized countries that ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol setting reduction targets, emissions in 2006 were about 17 per cent below the Protocol’s 1990 base line, but they still grew after 2000. The pre-2000 decrease stemmed from the economic decline of transition countries in Eastern and Central Europe in the 1990s.

Africa is expected to be particularly vulnerable to climatic variability. For Africans this is not good news.